Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:
OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS
UPDATED: Jul. 20, 2023
2023 Oscars Predictions:
Best Picture
Weekly Commentary: Barbenheimer has burst into the Oscar race with Christopher Nolan’s “Oppenheimer” and Greta Gerwig’s “Barbie” finally landing in theaters with critical acclaim and a possible colossal box office haul.
Of all the movies screened up to this point this year, Nolan’s movie is one of two films that could have all the key ingredients to win the Academy Awards’ most coveted prize. It’ll be a colossal guild player (watch out for the SAG ensemble), and the regional critics could make it a darling during the precursor season. The ongoing strikes could have a ripple effect on films that are dropping in the later months since their teams won’t be able to promote them in the same way as earlier titles.
The fall film festivals are on the horizon, and they could be in trouble with the ongoing writers and actor strikes.
First up is the Venice Film Festival, which takes place Aug. 30 through Sept. 9. Films such as Michael Mann’s “Ferrari” with Adam Driver and Yorgos Lanthimos’ “Poor Things” are expected to premiere at the gathering. However, it’s unclear if the studios behind those films will move forward with plans if a strike is still taking place.
The Telluride Film Festival is set to begin its 50th edition on Aug. 31 and last through Labor Day. The Colorado festival has not traditionally announced its lineup until the day before it starts, but it usually boasts the most significant awards contenders.
When it comes to the Toronto International Film Festival, it’s a tailor-made launching pad for both consumer and awards-friendly titles such as Taika Waititi’s upcoming sports film “Next Goal Wins” with Michael Fassbender. TIFF will likely be the most impacted if a deal isn’t reached with both guilds. Without stars in attendance, sponsored photo and video studios will disappear, and the media presence will shrink considerably.
And then there’s beyond with NYFF, opening with Todd Haynes’ “May December” with Julianne Moore and Natalie Portman.
From the first half of 2023, we are already tracking best picture hopefuls such as the Sony Pictures animated “Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse,” A24’s love drama “Past Lives” and Amazon Studios’ highly entertaining “Air.”
There are, of course, the Cannes standouts — Martin Scorsese’s “Killers of the Flower Moon,” Jonathan Glazer’s “The Zone of Interest” and the Palme d’Or winning “Anatomy of a Fall” from Justine Triet — already in the discussion.
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Oscars predictions in all categories.
The submission deadline for general categories is Nov. 18, 2023. Preliminary shortlist voting will begin on Dec. 18, with the results announced on Dec. 21. The voting period will run from Jan. 11-16, 2024, with the official nominations announcement on Jan. 23.
The 96th Oscars will be held on Sunday, Mar. 10.
And the Predicted Nominees Are:
Dan Friedkin, Martin Scorsese, Bradley Thomas, Daniel Lupi
Emma Thomas, Charles Roven, Christopher Nolan
Fred Berner, Bradley Cooper, Amy Durning, Emma Tillinger Koskoff, Kristie Macosko Krieger, Todd Phillips, Martin Scorsese, Steven Spielberg
Quincy Jones, Scott Sanders, Steven Spielberg, Oprah Winfrey
David Hinojosa, Pamela Koffler, Christine Vachon
Emerald Fennell, Josey McNamara, Tom Ackerley, Margot Robbie
Mark Johnson, Bill Block, David Hemingson
Avi Arad, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller, Amy Pascal, Christina Steinberg
Jessica Elbaum, Will Ferrell, Grant S. Johnson, Pamela Koffler, Tyler W. Konney, Sophie Mas, Natalie Portman, Christine Vachon
Ewa Puszczynska, James Wilson
Next in Line
Other Top-Tier Possibilities
Also In Contention
All Eligible Titles (Alphabetized by Studio)**
** This official list is incomplete, with all release dates not yet confirmed and subject to change.
2022 category winner: “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24) — Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert and Jonathan Wang (producers)
Oscars Predictions Categories
BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | BEST ACTOR | BEST ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT
About the Academy Awards
The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.
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